# Research & Methodology by Aaron Trubic

The twelve-lens framework, source notes, and the case studies behind the work.

Canonical URL: https://aarontrubic.org/

## The twelve lenses

The Vektora analytical methodology runs every strategic question through twelve fixed analytical lenses: reference, constraints, competitive, cooperative, discontinuity, stabilization, information and signaling, spillover and contagion, temporal path, domestic and internal, resource and biophysical, and informal and shadow. The dimensions don't change. The wording does. Every run produces twelve parallel scenarios from the same evidence base, and the disagreements between them are the primary analytical product.

## The failure pattern

The framework addresses a recurring failure pattern. Israeli intelligence had the October 7 attack plan and called it "totally imaginative." Credit rating agencies had the 2008 loan data and stamped it AAA. Nokia's engineers saw the iPhone threat and were told their concerns weren't supported by the data. The pattern is not stupidity or bias. It is structural: a single dominant model filtering evidence faster than the evidence can challenge the model.

## The book and the platform

The full argument and case studies are in [The Shape of Outcomes](https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GZK1ZDKC). The methodology is implemented in [Vektora](https://vektora.md), the platform built on top of it.

## What this site holds

This site collects supporting research, source notes, and supplementary case material. For author bio see [aarontrubic.com](https://aarontrubic.com); for advisory work see [Red Label](https://www.redlabel.ltd); for the writing see [aarontrubic.net](https://aarontrubic.net).

## More on this domain

- [About](https://aarontrubic.org/about/): what this domain covers and how to verify it.
- [Contact](https://aarontrubic.org/contact/): how to reach the practice.
- [Privacy](https://aarontrubic.org/privacy/): what is processed and on what basis.

## Elsewhere

- [The Shape of Outcomes](https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GZK1ZDKC)
- [vektora.md](https://vektora.md)
- [aarontrubic.com](https://aarontrubic.com)
- [redlabel.ltd](https://www.redlabel.ltd)
- [writing](https://aarontrubic.net)
- [entity map](https://aarontrubic.com/entitymap.html)